A friend is telling me Trump may be winning but like
November the eigth ain’t even here yet
It’s about the polls and here’s the issue
Trump has supporters who will vote for him no matter what he does. Trump himself has said he could shoot someone in the middle of a crowded street and still have supporters.
So those supporters LOVE Trump and will show up no matter what happens. Then you have others who don’t like either candidate, but we’re thinking they couldn’t support Trump a week ago because of the sexual assault scandals.
As time passed those people began to care less about the scandal. Every time Trump manages to go a week without a new scandal everyone forgets about the last one and the old supporters will always be there either way.
Hillary doesn’t have hard core supporters who love her and are super excited. Hillary’s supporters are more ‘she’s the best we’ve got’. Also, liberal/progressive voters tend to be more idealistic so they don’t like voting ‘no matter what?’
So a conservative might say ‘I’m not a racist myself, and I don’t like the KKK, but the fact the KKK endorses Trump won’t stop me from voting for him’.
A progressive might say ‘Hillary Clinton has said and done problematic things, so even though voting for her is essential to protect the rights of oppressed groups I’d feel better if I didn’t vote for a problematic person so I’m staying home.’
Trump knows this. That’s why his campaign strategy has been to make Hillary look bad to people won’t vote for him. Targeting black voters with Facebook content about things from the 90s (Trump’s policies and Supreme Court would do harm now and Hillary would be better, but the focus is on her not being good enough).
Then unlike Trump, scandals don’t happen and then go away after a week. Hillary’s emails have been an issue since 2015 and no one wants to move on. They just keep hammering it, and any new development reaffirms the line that something really bad must have happened.
So Hillary goes from being 5 points ahead to one point behind. This isn’t because Trump got more popular, he has the same white voters he’s always had but Clinton has lost support among the ‘lesser of two evils crowd’.
The Republicans who didn’t really want to support Trump are more willing to show up and vote to stop Hillary Clinton. The progressives are more likely to stay home or vote 3rd party because they don’t want to support “the system” or someone they feel isn’t perfect.
Basically Trump is winning in the polls, and it’s not because more people are voting for him. It’s because more people won’t for Hillary Clinton to stop Trump.
The choices are ‘Good’ vs ‘Terrible’ And people are saying, I’m not voting unless we get to pick something great. Except the the election isn’t ‘no one wins, let’s change the system and have a do-over’ if people don’t show up to vote, the person with the most votes win and you can bet the racists are showing up.
The reason to talk about this now, rather than next week, is so that maybe we can change things before it’s too late by encouraging people to vote.
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